A multidisciplinary framework for detecting critical boundaries and tipping points. Phase 1 completed, Phase 2 four modules done. Tested across four real cases (financial crisis 2008, sepsis, Soviet Union 1989-91, Arctic sea ice) on four scales. Eight disciplines integrated. Open Science, privately funded, no institutional affiliation.
Condensed to four main findings. Each supported by ≥3 independent disciplines or by ≥4 real-world tests.
Four real tests, three of them detectable — but only one (sepsis) systematically addressed. Scientific knowledge is necessary but not sufficient. Whoever proposes more research as an answer to non-epistemically blocked problems is mistaken.
Between signal and action operate six distinct filters: cognitive, institutional, political, economic, epistemic, media-related. Multiplicative model: one perfect barrier blocks action regardless of signal. Each class supported by ≥4 independent disciplines.
For every system there exists an optimal degree of order O*, beyond which the marginal energy expenditure for maintaining order exceeds the marginal benefit. The deepest form of order is the ability to recognize where one does not need any.
Type A: announced boundaries with measurable precursor signals. Type B: retrospectively detectable, prospectively limited. Type C: fundamentally non-detectable phenomena (true black swans). The separation is constitutive for the methodology.
Detectable is not detected. Detected is not accepted. Accepted is not acted upon. Each of these three gaps is its own research question — and none may be confused with the others.
All artefacts under CC BY 4.0, currently as HTML for online reading. PDF, DOCX, MD and the structured data as XLSX follow with the Zenodo upload.
Complete paper Phase 1 + Phase 2. 2990 words. Full translation with all Phase-2 modules integrated.
Complete paper Phase 1 + Phase 2. 2650 words. Original language.
~45 biomarkers across 12 domains. Concrete threshold values, type classification, evidence category, sources. Scientific overview, not a clinical guideline.
All 10 documents, all paper formats (DE+EN), biomarker XLSX. The archive is not published yet — it follows with the Zenodo upload.
Open-Science standard. DOI will be added after Zenodo upload.
The framework is in pre-submission state. External feedback from the three main disciplines (natural sciences, social sciences, philosophy of science) sought. Cover notes with targeted questions are included in the bundle.
Independent research · Privately funded · No institutional affiliation